{"id":835,"date":"2022-05-22T21:43:30","date_gmt":"2022-05-22T21:43:30","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/knowacademia.com\/?p=835"},"modified":"2022-05-26T03:40:11","modified_gmt":"2022-05-26T03:40:11","slug":"colleges-in-crisis-how-to-survive","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/knowacademia.com\/?p=835","title":{"rendered":"Colleges in Crisis &#038; How to Survive"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Debra Townsley, author of articles on strategy and presidential leadership and Michael Townsley have a new book \u2013 Colleges in Crisis. The central theme of this book is that the massive decline forecast for prospective college students over the next decade will push many private colleges to and over the brink of survival. The book looks to answer this question \u2018What strategies can Presidents and Boards of Trustees apply to confront this crisis?\u2019<\/p>\n<p>The book covers: the decline in enrollment due to a collapse of the birth rate that is amplified by high cost of loans and the decline in liberal arts enrollment; inherent conflict within institution governance structure that delays strategic changes, and ways institutional leaders can move forward with strategic changes.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Section 1: Enrollment \u2013 Shrinking Demand<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\n<ol>\n<li>Current state of enrollment for Private 4-Year Institutions 2010 to 2017<img loading=\"lazy\" class=\"wp-image-884 size-full aligncenter\" src=\"http:\/\/knowacademia.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/05\/enrollment-private-resize.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"686\" height=\"213\" srcset=\"http:\/\/knowacademia.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/05\/enrollment-private-resize.jpg 686w, http:\/\/knowacademia.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/05\/enrollment-private-resize-480x149.jpg 480w\" sizes=\"(min-width: 0px) and (max-width: 480px) 480px, (min-width: 481px) 686px, 100vw\" \/><\/li>\n<li>Birth Rates from 2010 to 2019<img loading=\"lazy\" class=\"wp-image-891 size-full aligncenter\" src=\"http:\/\/knowacademia.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/05\/Births-resize.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"559\" height=\"198\" srcset=\"http:\/\/knowacademia.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/05\/Births-resize.jpg 559w, http:\/\/knowacademia.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/05\/Births-resize-480x170.jpg 480w\" sizes=\"(min-width: 0px) and (max-width: 480px) 480px, (min-width: 481px) 559px, 100vw\" \/><\/li>\n<li>Investment in Education Hindered by Future Cost of Debt<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Anna Maria Andriotis,\u00a0Ken Brown\u00a0and\u00a0Shane Shifflett in a 2019 article in the Wall Street Journal reported that:<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThe American middle class is\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.wsj.com\/articles\/the-nations-credit-card-tab-hits-1-trillion-1491593929?mod=article_inline\">falling deeper into debt<\/a>\u00a0to maintain a middle-class lifestyle. Cars, college, houses and medical care have become steadily more costly, but\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.wsj.com\/articles\/despite-tight-job-market-labor-forces-income-is-squeezed-11550930400?mod=article_inline\">incomes have been largely stagnant for two decades<\/a>,. <sup><a id=\"post-835-endnote-ref-1\" href=\"#post-835-endnote-1\">[1]<\/a><\/sup><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\n<ol>\n<li>Shifting Preference for Academic Majors<strong><sup><a id=\"post-835-endnote-ref-2\" href=\"#post-835-endnote-2\">[2]<\/a><\/sup><\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong><img loading=\"lazy\" width=\"960\" height=\"932\" class=\"wp-image-837\" src=\"http:\/\/knowacademia.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/05\/https-thumbor-forbes-com-thumbor-960x0-https3a-2.png\" alt=\"https:\/\/thumbor.forbes.com\/thumbor\/960x0\/https%3A%2F%2Fblogs-images.forbes.com%2Fprestoncooper2%2Ffiles%2F2018%2F06%2Funderemployment.jpg\" srcset=\"http:\/\/knowacademia.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/05\/https-thumbor-forbes-com-thumbor-960x0-https3a-2.png 960w, http:\/\/knowacademia.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/05\/https-thumbor-forbes-com-thumbor-960x0-https3a-2-480x466.png 480w\" sizes=\"(min-width: 0px) and (max-width: 480px) 480px, (min-width: 481px) 960px, 100vw\" \/><\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\n<ol>\n<li>Price Competition &#8211; Tuition Discounting <strong><sup><a id=\"post-835-endnote-ref-3\" href=\"#post-835-endnote-3\">[3]<\/a><\/sup><\/strong><img loading=\"lazy\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-893 size-full\" src=\"http:\/\/knowacademia.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/05\/full-time-resize.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"647\" height=\"345\" srcset=\"http:\/\/knowacademia.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/05\/full-time-resize.jpg 647w, http:\/\/knowacademia.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/05\/full-time-resize-480x256.jpg 480w\" sizes=\"(min-width: 0px) and (max-width: 480px) 480px, (min-width: 481px) 647px, 100vw\" \/><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>Section 2: Private Colleges are Sliding into Financial Distress<\/strong><\/p>\n<ol>\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\n<ol>\n<li>Percentage of Not-For-Profit Colleges Reporting Financial Distress Under the Department of Education\u2019s \u2018Test of Financial Responsibility\u2019\u201d for the Period: 2008 to 2017<strong><sup><a id=\"post-835-endnote-ref-4\" href=\"#post-835-endnote-4\">[4]<\/a><\/sup><\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p><strong><sup><a href=\"#post-835-endnote-4\"><img loading=\"lazy\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-897 size-full\" src=\"http:\/\/knowacademia.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/05\/two-year-resize.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"554\" height=\"337\" srcset=\"http:\/\/knowacademia.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/05\/two-year-resize.jpg 554w, http:\/\/knowacademia.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/05\/two-year-resize-480x292.jpg 480w\" sizes=\"(min-width: 0px) and (max-width: 480px) 480px, (min-width: 481px) 554px, 100vw\" \/><\/a><\/sup><\/strong><\/p>\n<ol>\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\n<ol>\n<li>Institutional Averages: Full-Time Equivalent Students, First-Time, Full-Time Equivalent Students, and Total Expenses: Period 2010 to 2017<sup><a id=\"post-835-endnote-ref-5\" href=\"#post-835-endnote-5\">[5]<\/a><\/sup><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<table>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td><\/td>\n<td><strong>2010<\/strong><\/td>\n<td><strong>2011<\/strong><\/td>\n<td><strong>2012<\/strong><\/td>\n<td><strong>2013<\/strong><\/td>\n<td><strong>2014<\/strong><\/td>\n<td><strong>2015<\/strong><\/td>\n<td><strong>2016<\/strong><\/td>\n<td><strong>2017<\/strong><\/td>\n<td><strong>Compound Rate<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td colspan=\"3\"><strong>Total N of Institutions<\/strong><\/td>\n<td><strong>242<\/strong><\/td>\n<td><\/td>\n<td><\/td>\n<td><\/td>\n<td><\/td>\n<td><\/td>\n<td><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>FTE<\/td>\n<td>1,615<\/td>\n<td>1,614<\/td>\n<td>1,607<\/td>\n<td>1,596<\/td>\n<td>1,584<\/td>\n<td>1,572<\/td>\n<td>1,563<\/td>\n<td>1,549<\/td>\n<td>-0.59%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>FT-FTE<\/td>\n<td>414<\/td>\n<td>410<\/td>\n<td>406<\/td>\n<td>407<\/td>\n<td>405<\/td>\n<td>403<\/td>\n<td>405<\/td>\n<td>401<\/td>\n<td>-0.45%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>EXP (000)<\/td>\n<td>$62,620<\/td>\n<td>$64,267<\/td>\n<td>$66,713<\/td>\n<td>$68,531<\/td>\n<td>$70,258<\/td>\n<td>$72,109<\/td>\n<td>$74,174<\/td>\n<td>$75,363<\/td>\n<td>2.68%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p><strong>Section 3: Causes of Resistance to Strategic Change <\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\n<ol>\n<li>Contradictions of dual authority governance systems<\/li>\n<li>Faculty tenure<\/li>\n<li>Political model of decision-making through interest group subverts hierarchical decision-making<\/li>\n<li>Constraints imposed by accreditors and regulators<\/li>\n<li>Legal constraints \u2013 explicit and implied<\/li>\n<li>Mismatch between human and tangible capital investment and the student market<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>Section 4: Strategic Options to the Coming Demographic Crash<\/strong><\/p>\n<ol>\n<li>Leadership Rubric of Change<\/li>\n<li>Comprehensive Strategic Phased Planning<\/li>\n<li>Partnership and Merger Options<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p><strong>Target for Publication: January 2020<\/strong><\/p>\n<ol>\n<li id=\"post-835-endnote-1\"><strong>Endnotes:<\/strong>\n<p>Androitis, Ann Marie, Ken Brown, and Shane Shifflet (August 1, 2019); \u201cFamilies Go Deep in Debt to Stay in the Middle Class\u201d; Wall Street Journal; <a href=\"https:\/\/www.wsj.com\/articles\/families-go-deep-in-debt-to-stay-in-the-middle-class-11564673734\">https:\/\/www.wsj.com\/articles\/families-go-deep-in-debt-to-stay-in-the-middle-class-11564673734<\/a>. <a href=\"#post-835-endnote-ref-1\">\u2191<\/a><\/li>\n<li id=\"post-835-endnote-2\">Cooper, Preston (June 8, 2018\/); Underemployment Persists Throughout College Graduates\u2019 Career\u201d; Forbes Magazine; <a href=\"https:\/\/www.forbes.com\/sites\/prestoncooper2\/2018\/06\/08\/underemployment-persists-throughout-college-graduates-careers\/#547d9a087490\">https:\/\/www.forbes.com\/sites\/prestoncooper2\/2018\/06\/08\/underemployment-persists-throughout-college-graduates-careers\/#547d9a087490<\/a>. <a href=\"#post-835-endnote-ref-2\">\u2191<\/a><\/li>\n<li id=\"post-835-endnote-3\">\u201cPrivate Colleges Now Use Nearly Half of Tuition Revenue for Scholarships (May 9. 2019); NACUBO. <a href=\"#post-835-endnote-ref-3\">\u2191<\/a><\/li>\n<li id=\"post-835-endnote-4\">\u201cFederal Student Aid (Retrieved October 16 ,2019); \u201cFinancial Responsibility Scores\u201d; Office of the U.S. Department of Education; <a href=\"https:\/\/studentaid.ed.gov\/sa\/about\/data-center\/school\/composite-scores\">https:\/\/studentaid.ed.gov\/sa\/about\/data-center\/school\/composite-scores<\/a>. <a href=\"#post-835-endnote-ref-4\">\u2191<\/a><\/li>\n<li id=\"post-835-endnote-5\">John Minter &amp; Associates (August 8, 2019); Data Extracted for a select set of colleges from the 2017 Data Set \u2013 Integrated Postsecondary Education System. <a href=\"#post-835-endnote-ref-5\">\u2191<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Debra Townsley, author of articles on strategy and presidential leadership and Michael Townsley have a new book \u2013 Colleges in Crisis. The central theme of this book is that the massive decline forecast for prospective college students over the next decade will push many private colleges to and over the brink of survival. The book [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_et_pb_use_builder":"on","_et_pb_old_content":"","_et_gb_content_width":"","om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0},"categories":[18],"tags":[],"coauthors":[23,24],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/knowacademia.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/835"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/knowacademia.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/knowacademia.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/knowacademia.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/knowacademia.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=835"}],"version-history":[{"count":22,"href":"https:\/\/knowacademia.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/835\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1070,"href":"https:\/\/knowacademia.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/835\/revisions\/1070"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/knowacademia.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=835"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/knowacademia.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=835"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/knowacademia.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=835"},{"taxonomy":"author","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/knowacademia.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcoauthors&post=835"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}