It is difficult to imagine the structure of a college in ten years. A decade could bring even greater change than the technological change taking place in the past few years. In particular, there is a strong possibility that artificial intelligence (AI) will become more than a way for students to cheat on their classwork. AI may be on the cusp of dramatic changes in that may presage enormous changes in colleges and universities.
Changes in demographics, student preferences for majors and degrees, and the cost of operation will press higher education to change its operational model. Colleges in order to keep pace with student demand and control the price of tuition will be forced to restructure their instructional delivery systems, manage the administration, eliminate buildings, and sell of large segments of campuses.
Here is my take on how college could look in a decade. You can take this with a grain of salt, or as a piece of science fiction, but the dynamics of AI are so powerful that it is hard to imagine what it will do institutions and to higher education, in particular. The purpose of this paper is a thought piece about one scenario that might happen to a private college or university.
At the end of the paper, there is another brief of what higher education could like in 2035. This brief, Chronos, was designed by John Stevens of Stevens Strategy. It offers a model which combines an interpersonal approach with technology to higher education.
Artificial Intelligence Will Operate with These Components – Instruction, Academic Administration, Student Support Services, Marketing and Recruitment, Presidential Administration, Finance, and the Plant.
Operational Structure- the college would be managed from sub-systems that flow into the central management system. The system will operate through the previously listed components based on the following principles:
Component Sub-System Design:
- Goals of the sub-system is to efficiently and effectively deliver the services for that component;
- Component design objective – to include all the factors need to efficiently and effectively: move students through the sub-system or provide operational support for students, or maintain continuous operation of technological services and maintenance of the plant.
- Each sub-system will have a manager, who is responsible for the efficient and effective daily operation of the system;
- The sub-systems manager will have following staff with ratios adjusted with experience:
- Instruction – ratio of 1 staff per X students; suggest a ratio of 1/150 students;
- Academic Administration – ratio of 1 staff member per X majors with other staff in relation to other sub-system reports; note the library services will primarily be conducted on-line;
- Student Support Services – ratio of 1 staff member per x students; suggest a ratio of 1/250 students; note, since there will be few if any dorms or major activities, this sub-system will not need many supporting staff;
- Marketing and Recruiting – ratio of 1/budgeted new students; suggest a ratio of 1/50 new students; not this ratio will depend on whether the college continues to conduct traditional recruiting drives;
- Presidential Administration – ratio of 1 per Key System Managers and additional staff as needed to perform the duties of the president;
- Maintenance of the Plant; this sub-system will need a complement of skilled workers to maintain the plant; other duties such as lawn work, janitorial work is will be contracted to third parties, the Maintenance of the Plant manager should be able to handle direct supervision of third-party services;
- The management principle for sub-systems – management by exception by identifying errors and problems that can be immediately fixed; system manager will take responsibility for long-term problems;
- The manager will have a minimum number of technologists or support staff with skills needed to deliver on the goal(s) of the sub-system.
- The sub-system will regularly report to the appropriate system managers on performance, long-term problems, and recommendations for design changes.
System Managers:
- Each component or a combination of components will have a system manager responsible for strategic management, operational oversight of sub-system performance, and resolving major errors or problems with the system.
- Technology Managers,
- There will an IT software and hardware technology manager, a communication system manager, and an AI system manager;
- Each technology manager will be responsible for maintaining daily operations, updating systems, and designing processes to correct errors and faults;
- Each manager will meet regularly with sub-system managers and sub-system technology support staff.
- The technology managers are responsible for the security and integrity of their systems.
- System managers will conduct regular meeting to review performance, identify major problems, recommend changes in design or system procedures, and propose strategic changes to improve efficiency and effectiveness of the system
Key System Managers:
- Chief Operating Officer (COO) is responsible for managing key system managers and the efficient and effective operation of the system. They will be like mission control of moon missions; receiving continuous report on operational data, chairing regular system manager meetings, and preparing long-term operational st
- Academic, Marketing and Recruitment, Finance, and Plant;
- Key System Managers:
- Regularly meet with the president to report on sub-system performance goals, problems, and the need for special expenditures;
- Academic systems manager conducts regular oversight meeting with sub-system managers, identifies major issues that are adversely affecting student performance or completion of a degree. Also, the academic system manager is responsible for assessment of student, and graduate performance standards.
- The marketing system manager will provide on-going performance reports, major issues that are adversely affecting enrollment, competitive conditions, and strategic plans.
- The finance system manager will provide daily and weekly reports on cash flow, student payments, net budget performance, estimated end-of-year net and cash flow; status of bond covenants, and any financial system problems that need technical staff to correct.
- Plant system manager is responsible for plant operations, repairs, and long-term infrastructure needs that have to be resolved to assure efficient and effective operation of the plant systems. The plant manager is also responsible for on-campus security, electrical back-up, and minimizing the chance of electrical faults due to lightening, unexpected surges, and blackouts.
President
The president as the leader of the institution, the solicitor of donations, and the chief strategist of the college oversees all the work of the systems. However, the president does not participate in the daily oversight of the system that is left to Chief Operating Officer. Here are several critical roles that the president does play regarding the operation of the system:
- The president is responsible for achieving efficient and effective performance regarding the operations of the institution.
- Chair of the monthly and end of academic period review with the chief operating officer and key system managers; the goal of the meeting is to identify any changes in college policy or procedures that require the approval of the president.
- The president is responsible for resolving issues between the chief operating officer or the key system managers, or the sub-system managers which have become an obstacle to on-going operations.
- The president as chief institutional strategist will chair budget and strategy meetings with the chief operations officer, and key system.
- The president has the direct authority of the board of trustees for management of the institution; furthermore, the president meets with board to conduct business regarding operational performance, policy changes, and the financial condition of the institution; anyone seeking to meet with the board of trustees will need the authorization of the president.
- The primary relationship of the auditors is through the president as delegated by the board subject to the auditors reporting indignantly of the president.
Physical Location and Design of the AI Performance Tracking System
- Operational Headquarters that includes the offices of the president, chief operating officer, Key System Managers, and Sub-System Managers except for the Plant Operation Manager, and house the AI and IT systems with generating capacity next to the building, and physical mail reception station.
- Plant Systems will be in a separate building and will house central utilities, security, custodial services, emergency tools and equipment, maintenance and landscaping equipment, and campus generator back-up to the Operational Headquarter generator,
- Parking will be adjacent to Operational Headquarters and the plant operations building.
- Classroom building will include sufficient space for all classrooms with backup technology services, backup generator, and storage for supplies.
- System Display Boards Location
- The master display would be in the operational headquarters building. The room will be large enough to accommodate the full board, the COO in a large office that overlooks the master display board, and sufficient cubicles for key system managers.
- Sub-System managers will be in separate rooms on other floors with direct connection to the COO.
Benefits of the AI Management System
- Helps students with the potential to lower tuition prices due to lower costs per student;
- Gives students more precise tutorial assistances to support their course work;
- Concentrates management in one location;
- Provides continuous and real-time access to student progress and plant operations;
- Identifies bottlenecks, errors, and other problems and prices this information to the level charged with managing operational issues.
- Affords central management problem solving for large operational issues that require changes in policies and procedures across the system.
- Offers a central location in the operations center to deal with unexpected emergencies or large-scale operational problems.
- Generates on-going and regular reports on goals and objectives of the college.
- Reduces the footprint of the college, which provides the board of trustees with the opportunity to sell off excess property and equipment and to use the sales income to pay down long-term debt.
- This system should increase the operational efficiency through constant monitoring of performance while reducing costs by eliminating redundant employees and disposing of unneeded buildings and equipment.
What Happens to Small, Financially Stressed Colleges That Can’t Adapt This Model?
Small colleges already face tremendous financial stress due to the enrollment cliff, changes in student preferences for majores, costs of operations, and internal resistance to change. There best option is to find a partner where both parties could have sufficient resources to make the lead to the high-technology college of 2035.
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Chronos Project
John Stevens, Stevens Strategy
Chronos:
Students want new model with interactive learning and individualized learning (not one size fits all), Yet, 75% of all entering college freshmen still desire a residential experience. 5.6 million students want cutting edge technology (e-learning), ten times more than those who want traditional instruction. The Chronos model offers 1000 percent growth in market for on-line learning
Chronos Summary
- Affordable, technologically delivered liberal arts and pre-professional;
- Individualized instruction with state-of-the-art technology;
- Integrates curricular, co-curricular and residential learning;
- Revolutionizes faculty work;
- Accredited degrees in 2.5 years;
- 45% of average student private college net price ($15,830*/$7,221 / sem.);
- 65% of average private college book price ($24,935*/$16,208/ per sem.);
- Campus – size is subject to existing campus;
- Predicted Net Profit: $116 million net profit annually at optimum enrollment of 5,000 students.
Chronos Model
- General Description
- Coaches organized by learning groups;
- Interdisciplinary programs and majors;
- Integrates curriculum and co-curriculum;
- Integrates living and learning;
- Individualized, technology-based instruction;
- Collaborative Project-based learning;
- Low tuition and fees;
- Accelerated graduation in 2 ½ years;
- Assessed by grades, projects, e-portfolio;
- Learning outcomes structured around 21stCentury career options.
- Continuous Student Assessment
- Pre- and post-testing of the expected learning outcomes associated with each course;
- Student’s performance assessed by grades in each course, Learning Coach assessment of participation in group projects and e-portfolios;
- Learning Coaches evaluated by aggregate student grades, pre- and post-testing of learning outcomes in courseware developed by each coach and 360˚ performance appraisals;
- Staff evaluated against benchmarks in their area of responsibility and 360˚performance appraisals.
- Key Financial Planning Elements
- Technology based delivery system;
- Learning coaches; coaches, assistant coaches;
- Lean administrative structure;
- Three trimester a year academic program;
- Efficient and green physical plant.